How The Unusual Campaign Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still